Probability in Sports
Estimating the probabilities of events and comparing them with the odds of the bookmaker
Sports betting math is used to evaluate the odds set by the bookmaker.
They are set on the basis of statistical information, the bookmaker's margin, as well as taking into account the distribution of players' bets.
How do I make a mathematical calculation of sports betting? Initially, the probability of each event is determined. Strictly speaking, this is a conditional probability, since it cannot be precisely determined in sports. There are too many factors, including human ones.
For a better understanding, let's take the championship of some country and try to determine the coefficient for the victory of one of the teams based on the table. Take the Swedish championship and the Hammarby team. She plays the next match at home with 22 bet app.
Hammarby has 33% of games won. In this case, the odds for winning should be 3. AIK's lost matches have 28%. The coefficient for his defeat from these data should be 3.5. If we average these indicators, we get a coefficient of 3.25 for Hammarby's victory. It can be concluded that when compiling the coefficients, the offices were based on the general indicators. We got the values from two tables: general and for home and away meetings. Thus, our odds are more in line with the statistics of the teams' games.
Similar simple mathematical algorithms for sports betting can be used to determine odds for totals, handicaps, corners, yellow and red cards, tennis tie-breaks won, etc.
Tables to calculate odds
Experienced players create various spreadsheets where you can get your odds based on team statistics as shown in 22 bet download article.
Over / under quotes are calculated here. The teams' home and away games are taken into account. The yellow cells are filled in. This is the number of matches played by over and under 2.5 teams in their own and foreign fields. In the lower cells, the coefficients for the teams are calculated and the values are averaged, as in the previous example. The blue cell has the most accurate coefficient. In the rest, these are various options for averaging the values, so to speak.
Mathematical calculations of sports betting allow players to effectively manage the game bank, make the right bets, and get their own odds for events. Using spreadsheets and programs, you can automate the search for events and quickly select the most profitable offers, filtering out the obviously unprofitable ones.
Read more in Wikipedia: Probability Theory